As we approach the 2024 elections, over 800 million citizens across the U.S. and the EU will make decisions that could significantly reshape political leadership in the West. In anticipation of these critical events, Kapa Research has conducted a series of international surveys designed to explore the evolving concerns and priorities of voters. Following our ‘Great Challenges for the EU’ survey in ten EU member countries, conducted prior to the European Parliament elections of June 2024, we launched a corresponding ‘Great Challenges for the U.S.’ survey ahead of the U.S. presidential election. This week’s poll focuses too on the upcoming U.S. presidential election, examining the attitudes and priorities of voters in Pennsylvania — one of the most critical swing states in this election. The findings go beyond the mere snapshot of voter intentions, looking deeper into what voters see as the primary challenges for the U.S., and how these concerns determine their preferences in the lead-up to November.
With rising living costs and immigration emerging as the top concerns for a majority of voters, the state mirrors national anxieties shared across both the U.S. and Europe. These issues are closely followed by matters of women’s rights, particularly around access to abortion, and gun control, both of which remain deeply polarizing. At the local level, the Pennsylvania electorate is uniquely focused on issues that hit closer to home. Voters expressed a strong desire for greater investment in infrastructure and the creation of job opportunities, as well as concern over the preservation of rural hospital services. Another significant local issue is the ownership of U.S. Steel, with vast majority of respondents agreeing that foreign ownership of this key industry should be blocked to protect American jobs and national security.
Key Issues
More specifically, the most pressing issue for Pennsylvania voters is the rising cost of living, with 56% identifying it as the top priority for U.S. leadership to address in the next five years. The concern over inflation is particularly acute among middle-aged voters aged 45-64, where 66% see it as the primary challenge. Notably, 59% of men and 53% of women also prioritize inflation, though the slight gap in concern between genders reflects varying economic pressures.
Immigration ranks as the second most important issue, with 34% of voters wanting stricter immigration control, a figure that rises to 39% among men and 43% among voters aged 45-64, indicating that immigration is a critical issue for middle-aged male voters, aligning more with conservative positions on border security.
The Gender Divide in Candidate Support and Social Issues
More specifically, the most pressing issue for Pennsylvania voters is the rising cost of living, with 56% identifying it as the top priority for U.S. leadership to address in the next five years. The concern over inflation is particularly acute among middle-aged voters aged 45-64, where 66% see it as the primary challenge. Notably, 59% of men and 53% of women also prioritize inflation, though the slight gap in concern between genders reflects varying economic pressures.
The gender divide also extends into voters’ views on the country’s priorities. 41% of women in Pennsylvania cite women’s rights, including access to abortion, as a top concern, compared to only 21% of men. Similarly, gun control is more important to women (37%), while only 22% of men express similar concerns. Men are more likely to focus on economic concerns, defense, and immigration, while women prioritize individual rights and climate change. However, healthcare access and income inequality are issues that resonate equally across gender lines, with voters of all stripes expressing concern over these topics.
Local Concerns: U.S. Steel, Infrastructure and Healthcare
On local issues, Pennsylvanians show strong support for increased infrastructure investment, with 78% agreeing that more government funding should be directed towards roads, bridges, and public transportation to create jobs and modernize the state’s infrastructure. Meanwhile, the preservation of rural hospitals is also a critical issue, with 74% of respondents in favor of boosting funding to prevent rural hospital closures. This highlights the importance of healthcare access, particularly for voters in the state’s rural areas, where hospital closures have become an increasing concern. The U.S. Steel debate adds a unique dimension to Pennsylvania’s voter priorities, with 57% of respondents agreeing that Nippon Steel should not be allowed to take over the company. This sentiment is especially strong among voters aged 45-64 (62%), reflecting concerns about economic nationalism and preserving the state’s industrial base.
Voter Engagement and Polarization
A remarkable 78% of respondents indicated that they are certain to vote in the 2024 election, demonstrating a high level of voter engagement. Among those who watched the Harris-Trump debate, 81% are certain to vote, highlighting the impact of political engagement on turnout. Furthermore, seven in ten voters expressed firm certainty in their choice, signaling a high degree of polarization. Harris’s supporters describe her as empathetic and forward-thinking, with a clear vision for the future, while Trump’s backers view him as an experienced leader, particularly strong on job creation and law enforcement.
Methodology Note
This survey sampled 513 registered voters in Pennsylvania between September 16 and 19, 2024. The sample was drawn from a proprietary panel and weighted by age, gender, and party identification to ensure representative results. The margin of error for this poll is ±4.5 percentage points. Pennsylvania, a state that narrowly flipped in 2020, remains central to the 2024 election calculus. As one of the nation’s most significant swing states, the dynamics of its electorate will likely play a decisive role in determining the next U.S. president.